The Russia-Ukraine War and Geoeconomic Alignment in the South Caucasus: Economic Orientation between Russia and the EU

This study quantitatively analyzes changes in the economic alignment of the three South Caucasus countries — Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — toward the EU and Russia following the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war. By comparing the period from 2019 to 2024 with 2022 as the turning point, the study measures the economic orientation of each country using three core indicators of external economic relations: trade, FDI, and remittances. The findings reveal an asymmetry in which changes in political orientations do not align with the structure of economic linkages. While Armenia has sought to distance itself politically from Russia, its economic ties have in fact deepened since the war. Azerbaijan has pursued a more balanced foreign policy, yet recent developments indicate a growing preference for the EU. Despite political frictions, Georgia has consistently maintained and even reinforced its economic alignment with the EU. These findings suggest that the South Caucasus has not converged toward a single economic trajectory after the war but has instead diverged according to sector-specific patterns of external linkage. This study provides an essential foundation for understanding the ongoing reconfiguration of the regional economic order in the South Caucasus.