Vegetation cover dynamics of the Dniester basin under climate change influence in the 21st century

The increasing climate instability in the Carpathian Region of Ukraine highlights the need for longterm monitoring and quantitative assessment of vegetation cover changes in the Dniester River basin. The aim of this study was to analyse vegetation cover change trends in the Dniester basin within Ivano-Frankivsk Region during 2001-2024 and to identify relationships between these trends and key climate variables. Research methods included time series analysis of median summer vegetation index values based on MODIS satellite data, application of the Mann-Kendall test to detect monotonic trends, calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients to assess linear relationships, and use of Random Forest regression to model the nonlinear impact of temperature, precipitation, land cover types, and elevation on vegetation dynamics. The main results showed an overall positive trend in vegetation index growth, with the lowest value in 2003 and the highest in 2023. Statistically significant summer trends cover 43.2% of the territory, of which 38.8% are positive and 4.4% are negative trends. The most pronounced positive changes were observed at medium elevations in the Carpathian foothills, where broadleaf and mixed forests dominate. The Random Forest model achieved a coefficient of determination of 0.718, identifying temperature as the primary predictor of vegetation dynamics, followed by land cover type, precipitation, and elevation. The practical value of the study lies in providing a scientific basis for planning conservation measures, adapting forestry to climate change, and developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies for the Carpathian Region