Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference

Version 5.0.0 — replication package for the Digital Finance version. This version contains the code, data and stored numerical outputs of the final production version (revision 8, 3 September 2026) of the article Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference, forthcoming in Digital Finance (Springer). It is the source of record for every number in that article; earlier versions of this record carry preprint-stage results and should not be used to reproduce it. Contents. crypto-event-study-v5.0.0.zip is the GitHub release v5.0.0 of dissensus-ai/crypto-event-study. Work from replication-2026-09-03/: analysis scripts c1–c21, estimators, committed price series, constructed GDELT sentiment indices, the 50-event census with classification metadata, stored outputs, a pinned dependency lock and PAYLOAD_SHA256SUMS. No API access is required. The root code/, data/, results/, paper/ and springer-submission/ directories are historical. events.csv is the event census, provided separately for convenience. Headline results. First moment: +8.69 pp infrastructure-minus-regulatory CAR difference, event-level block bootstrap p = 0.202. Second moment: curated point multiplier 3.49×, conditional fixed-path Student-t-copula CCC-GARCH-X bootstrap absolute-statistic p = 0.389; floored recursive sensitivities reject one-sided. The asymmetry is directional, selection-conditional and inference-scheme-sensitive; failure to reject is not evidence that markets treat the categories identically. The manuscript is not redistributed in this version; the preprint remains available in earlier versions of this record and on arXiv (2602.07046).

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
arXiv (Cornell University)
Published
2026-09-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23018501
Primary Topic
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Type
preprint

Funders

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preprint

Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference

Murad Farzulla
arXiv (Cornell University)
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
preprint

Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference

Murad Farzulla
preprint en

Abstract

Version 5.0.0 — replication package for the Digital Finance version. This version contains the code, data and stored numerical outputs of the final production version (revision 8, 3 September 2026) of the article Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference, forthcoming in Digital Finance (Springer). It is the source of record for every number in that article; earlier versions of this record carry preprint-stage results and should not be used to reproduce it. Contents. crypto-event-study-v5.0.0.zip is the GitHub release v5.0.0 of dissensus-ai/crypto-event-study. Work from replication-2026-09-03/: analysis scripts c1–c21, estimators, committed price series, constructed GDELT sentiment indices, the 50-event census with classification metadata, stored outputs, a pinned dependency lock and PAYLOAD_SHA256SUMS. No API access is required. The root code/, data/, results/, paper/ and springer-submission/ directories are historical. events.csv is the event census, provided separately for convenience. Headline results. First moment: +8.69 pp infrastructure-minus-regulatory CAR difference, event-level block bootstrap p = 0.202. Second moment: curated point multiplier 3.49×, conditional fixed-path Student-t-copula CCC-GARCH-X bootstrap absolute-statistic p = 0.389; floored recursive sensitivities reject one-sided. The asymmetry is directional, selection-conditional and inference-scheme-sensitive; failure to reject is not evidence that markets treat the categories identically. The manuscript is not redistributed in this version; the preprint remains available in earlier versions of this record and on arXiv (2602.07046).

arXiv (Cornell University)
King's College London
Industry, innovation and infrastructure
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
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