Understanding Mosquito Vector Invasion Pathways: Synergistic Effects of Human Mobility, Climate and Natural Dispersal

Mosquito-borne diseases are rising globally, driven in part by the expanding range of invasive vector species. However, the mechanisms underlying their spread remain poorly understood, largely due to limited and inconsistent data. Here, we integrate high-resolution human mobility data with a thermo-biologically realistic metapopulation model to investigate the colonisation dynamics of the dengue vector, Aedes albopictus, using 20 years of invasion data from Spain. Our results reveal the dual role of humans: as architects of climate change, making local environments increasingly suitable, and as vehicles of dispersal, inadvertently transporting this vector across regions. The spread occurs through a fragmented human mobility network, while natural dispersal bridges gaps between connected areas, enabling faster and more continuous expansion. These findings underscore the importance of considering the synergistic effects of climate, human movement, and natural dispersal when forecasting future range expansions and designing coordinated, multi-scale vector control strategies in an era of rapid environmental change.