Which Comes First, Political Interest or Media Consumption? Analyzing Their Causal Relationship During Mexican Election Campaigns

Abstract During election campaigns, the media become crucial sources of information, driven by citizens' heightened interest in accessing political content. Although the relationship between political interest and media consumption has been extensively studied, important questions remain regarding the nature and direction of this causal link. This paper analyzes the relationship between these two variables during the 2018 and 2021 Mexican federal election campaigns, with the aim of identifying whether media effects, selection effects, or reciprocal effects were present. To this end, data from two panel surveys conducted among the adult population in Mexico during each electoral cycle were analyzed. These surveys measured political interest and media consumption at multiple points throughout the campaigns, allowing for an assessment of their causal dynamics. While some unidirectional effects were observed, the findings indicate that reciprocal relationships predominated across both electoral periods.