Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitat for Invasive <i>Coreopsis</i> Species in China

Climate change poses a serious threat to global species distributions and has significantly altered the distribution patterns of invasive species. <i>Coreopsis</i> spp. are widely distributed invasive plants with strong adaptability and reproductive capacity, whose invasion has become a major ecological concern in China. Using three climate change scenarios (SSP-126, SSP-245, SSP-585), combined with the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS), this study delineated the potential distribution areas and distribution centroids of invasive <i>Coreopsis</i> plants in China. The results indicated that temperature (especially isothermality BIO3 and mean temperature of the warmest quarter BIO10) and moisture are the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of <i>Coreopsis</i> spp., while human activity (HA) also plays a key role in shaping their distribution. <i>Coreopsis drummondii</i> exhibited the largest suitable habitat area (4.138 × 10⁶ km²), whereas <i>Coreopsis verticillata</i> had the smallest (9.53 × 10⁵ km²). Under current climatic conditions, the six <i>Coreopsis</i> species are mainly distributed in southern China. In future climate scenarios, their distributions are projected to shift northward and toward plateau regions. Moreover, high niche and range overlap was observed among <i>Coreopsis grandiflora</i>, <i>Coreopsis lanceolata</i>, and <i>Coreopsis tinctoria</i>, suggesting potential intensified interspecific competition. This study systematically reveals the invasion potential and spatial dynamics of <i>Coreopsis</i> spp. under climate change, providing a scientific basis for early warning, regional management, and ecological control. It also offers perspectives for future research on the interaction mechanisms between invasive and native species.