Shift in Russia's National Security Strategy Paradigm :Focusing on Prospects for the Next National Security Strategy and Its Foreign Policy Implications Based on Threat Perceptions

This study analyzes the paradigm of Russia’s national security strategy by examining the National Security Concepts of 1997 and 2000 and the National Security Strategies of 2009, 2015, and 2021. By comparing the definitions of national interests, threat perceptions, national priorities, and security assurance measures presented in each document, the study examines how changes in historical context and the international environment have been reflected in Russia’s security strategy. The analysis shows that Russia’s national security strategy initially emphasized regime stability and state survival, and later expanded into a comprehensive development strategy incorporating economic and technological advancement. Over time, greater emphasis has been placed on sovereignty, traditional values, social cohesion, and information and science-and-technology security. In addition, external environmental changes—including the war in Ukraine, deterioration of relations with the West, international sanctions, and intensified competition in military and information domains—have been reflected in the major orientations and contents of successive strategy documents. Through a comparative analysis of these documents, the study identifies both continuity and change in Russia’s national security strategy, confirming that shifts in policy priorities have been closely linked to domestic and international security conditions. The evolution of the strategy can thus be understood not as a series of abrupt breaks, but as a process in which the core elements of earlier strategies were retained while the central focus and points of emphasis were gradually adjusted.<br/> Furthermore, this study examines how Russia’s national security strategy has functioned as a fundamental framework shaping the country’s foreign policy orientation and serving as a reference point for regional policy approaches. The findings indicate that changes in Russia’s security strategy have provided a certain degree of strategic direction for policy adjustments toward Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, and the United States. By comprehensively reviewing strategy documents across different periods, this study presents both the structural evolution of Russia’s national security strategy and its implications for foreign policy, thereby providing an analytical basis for understanding Russia’s security and external policy posture.