Exploring the influence of cognitive differences on farmers’ participation in forestry carbon sequestration projects: evidence from China

Enhancing farmers’ cognition of forest carbon sequestration management and strengthening their agency in project participation are crucial strategies for addressing global climate change. Drawing on empirical evidence from bamboo industry clusters in Zhejiang Province, China, this study integrates cognitive behavioral theory with the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) framework. Using bivariate probit models and moderated mediation analysis, we examine how multidimensional cognitive factors shape farmers’ participation intentions and actual engagement in forest carbon sequestration projects. Results show that economic, ecological, and social cognition significantly increase participation probability by 1.6%, 2.8%, and 3.0%, respectively, whereas risk cognition reduces it by 2.7%. Policy cognition exerts the strongest effect, raising participation likelihood by about 10%. Land transfer significantly moderates the relationship between policy cognition and participation, enhancing farmers’ ability to act on policy awareness. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that cognitive effects vary across age groups and village leadership status, with elderly farmers and village cadres exhibiting distinct participation mechanisms. The study concludes with targeted policy recommendations to promote smallholder engagement in forest carbon sequestration, contributing to sustainable agroforestry governance and regional carbon sequestration goals.