Modeling COVID-19 Population Dynamics with a Viral Reservoir and Human Mobility

This article introduces and thoroughly examines a novel deterministic compartmental model of COVID-19 dynamics. The model uniquely incorporates compartments for symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals alongside an environmental reservoir for the pathogen. It also accounts for a steady inflow of infected visitors and a steady outflow from the removed class. The mathematical soundness of the model is established by identifying the invariant region and ensuring positivity of solutions. Notably, during surges of infected visitors, certain classes maintain positive minimum values. We analytically determine endemic equilibrium points and prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis highlights the significant roles of transmission rates and asymptomatic individuals in disease spread. Simulation results corroborate the theoretical findings and provide additional insights into the model’s predictive capabilities.