Predictive validity of the OSCE and academic transcript on MIR performance: an analysis of medical students at the Complutense University of Madrid

Assessing the predictive validity of academic performance metrics, such as the OSCE, academic transcripts, and Medical Residency Entrance Exam outcomes, is crucial for improving medical education and professional training. This study explores the relationship between Objective Structured Clinical Examination scores, academic records, and Medical Residency Entrance Exam results among medical students at the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), with the goal of identifying the strongest predictors of postgraduate performance. A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 1,403 Complutense University of Madrid medical students who graduated between 2019 and 2023, excluding 2020 due to pandemic-related disruptions. Spearman’s correlations and multiple regression analyses were employed to examine the associations between variables. Academic transcripts showed the strongest correlation with Medical Residency Entrance Exam rankings (ρ = −0.721, p < 0.001; ρ = −0.721, p < 0.001), followed by Objective Structured Clinical Examination scores (ρ = 0.567, p < 0.001; ρ = 0.567, p < 0.001). Significant differences in Objective Structured Clinical Examination performance were observed across years, with 2022 students scoring lower than other cohorts (ANOVA, p < 0.001, p < 0.001). Academic transcripts remain the most reliable predictor of Medical Residency Entrance Exam performance, while Objective Structured Clinical Examination scores provide valuable insights into clinical competence. Future research should integrate predictors and assess long-term outcomes to enhance assessment methodologies in medical education.