Evolution of Temperature Extremes During the Holocene: From the Modeling Perspective

Abstract Using a set of slice experiments driven primarily by orbital forcing, we examine the evolution of extreme temperature events throughout the Holocene, particularly their response to insolation and precipitation changes. Warm extremes exhibit broadly linear trends: they are more intense and frequent in the early‐Holocene and weaken toward the pre‐industrial period. In non‐monsoon regions, these warm events respond directly to changes in solar radiation, with only a small seasonal lag. In Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, increased pre‐monsoon precipitation cools the surface and suppresses warm extremes, while reduced precipitation amplifies them in the South American monsoon region. Notably, in Australia, a decrease in the warmest day temperature coincides with an increase in warm day frequency, reflecting opposing seasonal insolation effects on intensity versus frequency. Cold extremes are simpler relative to warm extremes: at low latitudes, they track winter insolation linearly—the coldest nights occur just after the annual insolation minimum, and their frequency changes accordingly. In contrast, Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude cold extremes show no clear response to orbital‐driven insolation change, likely because they occur during polar night when internal climate variability dominates. Our findings highlight that, under early‐Holocene orbital conditions, both warm and cold extremes are more intense and more frequent, in contrast to more warm extremes but less cold extremes in response to anthropogenic warming.