Does Playing Time Impact Player Performance? A COVID-19 Natural Experiment

This paper assesses the effect of playing time on player performance within the Chinese Basketball Association. The outbreak of the COVID-19 prevented some foreign players from returning to their team during the 2019–2020 season and has led to an increase in playing time for domestic players in overlapping positions. We exploit this exogenous variation in playing time and find that domestic players at affected positions show significantly improved performance, measured by plus–minus values. Quantile regression reveals that domestic players with higher plus–minus values benefit more. The shock of the COVID-19 also positively affects field goal percentage and points per minute. Additionally, we identify persistent performance gains beyond the immediate season.