Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and Risk

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI) are a major source of uncertainty in climate science, critically affecting our ability to project near‐term climate evolution and assess societal risks. These interactions influence effective radiative forcing, cloud dynamics, and precipitation patterns, yet remain insufficiently constrained due to limitations in observations, modeling, and process understanding. This uncertainty hampers robust policy advice across multiple domains—from estimating remaining carbon budgets and climate sensitivity, to anticipating regional extreme events and evaluating climate interventions such as solar radiation modification. In many cases, the influence of ACI is either underappreciated or excluded from decision‐making frameworks due to its complexity and lack of quantification. This perspective outlines a path forward to overcome these barriers by leveraging emerging opportunities in satellite remote sensing, ground‐based and airborne observations, high‐resolution climate modeling, and machine learning. We identify key areas where rapid progress is feasible, including improved retrievals of cloud microphysical properties, better representation of natural aerosols in a warming world, and enhanced integration of observational and modeling communities. Even as anthropogenic aerosol and its impacts on clouds is reducing owing to emissions controls, addressing ACI uncertainties remains essential for refining climate projections, supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, and delivering actionable science to policymakers in a rapidly changing climate system.

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Publication Details

Journal
AGU Advances
Published
2026-02-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025av001872
Primary Topic
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and Risk

Antti Arola, Jennie L. Thomas, P. Seifert, Anton Laakso et al.
AGU Advances
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
article

Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and Risk

Antti Arola, Jennie L. Thomas, P. Seifert, Anton Laakso, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Sara M. Blichner, Carlos Pérez García‐Pando, A. Benedetti, Philip Stier, Laura J. Wilcox, Merete Bilde, Moa K. Sporre, Paul Zieger, Tomi Raatikainen, Ralph A. Kahn, Chris Smith, Trude Storelvmo, Louis Marelle, Johannes Quaas, Mira L. Pöhlker, Julia Schmale, Edward Gryspeerdt, Kostas Tsigaridis, Harri Kokkola, Annica M. L. Ekman, Ulas Im, Henrik Skov, Andreas Massling, Athanasios Nenes, Ulrike Lohmann, Bjørn H. Samset, Annele Virtanen, Ilona Riipinen, Oleg Dubovik, Silke Gross, Stefano Decesari, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Vassilis Amiridis, Otto Hasekamp, Ulla Wandinger
article en

Abstract

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI) are a major source of uncertainty in climate science, critically affecting our ability to project near‐term climate evolution and assess societal risks. These interactions influence effective radiative forcing, cloud dynamics, and precipitation patterns, yet remain insufficiently constrained due to limitations in observations, modeling, and process understanding. This uncertainty hampers robust policy advice across multiple domains—from estimating remaining carbon budgets and climate sensitivity, to anticipating regional extreme events and evaluating climate interventions such as solar radiation modification. In many cases, the influence of ACI is either underappreciated or excluded from decision‐making frameworks due to its complexity and lack of quantification. This perspective outlines a path forward to overcome these barriers by leveraging emerging opportunities in satellite remote sensing, ground‐based and airborne observations, high‐resolution climate modeling, and machine learning. We identify key areas where rapid progress is feasible, including improved retrievals of cloud microphysical properties, better representation of natural aerosols in a warming world, and enhanced integration of observational and modeling communities. Even as anthropogenic aerosol and its impacts on clouds is reducing owing to emissions controls, addressing ACI uncertainties remains essential for refining climate projections, supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, and delivering actionable science to policymakers in a rapidly changing climate system.

AGU AdvancesVol. 7(1)
Institut polytechnique de Grenoble (FR), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Georgia Institute of Technology (US), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), Stockholm University (SE), University of Eastern Finland (FI), University of Oslo (NO), Lund University (SE), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Aarhus University (DK), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES), Aarhus University Hospital (DK), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR) (DE), ETH Zurich (CH), Sorbonne Université (FR), University of Oxford (GB), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Kjeller Innovasjon (Norway) (NO), Institute for Biomedical Engineering (CH), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT), CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (US), Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (DE), National Observatory of Athens (GR), Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (FR), Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique (FR), Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (FR), Bolin Centre for Climate Research (SE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Imperial College London (GB), Space Research Organisation Netherlands (NL), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH), University of Reading (GB), Columbia University (US), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (GR), Université Grenoble Alpes (FR), Leipzig University (DE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
European Commission
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 72%
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
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