Ecological Stability Status and Zoning Prediction of the Ordos Plateau: Coupling Analysis of Landscape Ecological Risk and Ecosystem Service Value

With the intensification of climate change, land use changes, and human activities, the ecosystems of the Ordos Plateau face severe challenges. This study evaluates the current ecological stability of the Ordos Plateau and makes future ecological zoning predictions based on the coupling analysis of landscape ecological risk (LER) and ecosystem service value (ESV). By analyzing the changes in LER and ESV from 2000 to 2023, the study reveals the response characteristics of the region’s ecosystems under climate change and land use changes. The results show that the rational utilization of grasslands and forests has effectively improved land use efficiency, reduced ecological risks, and enhanced ecosystem service value. Ecological restoration projects in the Mu Us Sandy Land and Kubuqi Desert have promoted the transformation of ecologically fragile areas (Zone IV) into optimized management areas (Zone II). However, the Kubuqi Desert remains a core area of ecological fragility. When planning for the future of the Ordos Plateau, it is important to pay attention to the scientific planning of arable land development to prevent further deterioration of the ecological situation. The future scenario prediction based on the intPLUS model indicates that reasonable ecological management policies will contribute to the sustainable development of the region. The research results provide a theoretical framework and practical reference for ecological restoration and management in the Ordos Plateau and similar arid and semi-arid regions.