Edge-Based GNN for Network Delay Prediction Enhanced by Flight Connectivity

Accurate prediction of network-wide delay is crucial for air traffic management and passenger service. However, the inherent complexity of large-scale air traffic networks, with their dense interconnectivity and multi-dimensional operational dynamics such as flight connectivity, makes this task highly challenging. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) offer a promising framework, prevailing models are constrained by a “node → edge → node” representation paradigm, which fails to preserve the high-fidelity, edge-centric operational data that encodes delay propagation paths. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel edge-based GNN. Our approach begins with a flight-connectivity-informed delay characterization, introducing delay width and delay strength as core metrics. The model implements an “edge → node” message-passing mechanism that explicitly encodes inbound and outbound flights, enabling direct learning of delay diffusion dynamics along air routes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, achieving the lowest RMSE, MAE, and MSE. A layered performance analysis reveals a key strength: the model delivers superior accuracy at major hub airports—which are critical to network performance—while maintaining robust precision at small-to-medium-sized airports. This balanced capability underscores the model’s practical utility and its enhanced capacity to capture the essential spatial–temporal dependencies governing delay propagation across diverse airport tiers.