Alliance Realignment in the Second Trump Administration and the Restructuring of South Korea’s Russia Strategy: Diplomatic Responses for Securing Strategic Autonomy

The inauguration of the second Trump administration marks a critical turning point that necessitates a structural recalibration of the ROK–U.S. alliance. The renewed emphasis on “cost sharing” and “America First” has weakened the institutional stability of the alliance and further constrained South Korea’s autonomy in foreign policy decision-making. Against this backdrop, this study analyzes how Seoul can reconstruct its strategy toward Russia while pursuing strategic autonomy within a complex security–economic interdependence structure. To this end, the research integrates the theory of complex interdependence with the concept of Risk-Managed Diplomacy, offering an analytical framework to explain the interaction between alliance adjustment and strategic engagement with Russia.<br/> Empirically, the paper examines the 2025 APEC Summit in Gyeongju as a case study—particularly the negotiations on investment, tariff adjustment, and energy cooperation—to trace how South Korea sought limited avenues of engagement with Moscow under the constraints of the Western sanctions regime. The findings suggest that Seoul can mitigate the rigidity of the alliance and manage economic interdependence in a strategic manner to pursue diplomatic balance in the emerging post-alliance era.<br/> This study contributes both theoretically and policy-wise by proposing an integrated framework linking alliance restructuring and the realization of autonomy. It thereby offers new insights into South Korea’s adaptive diplomacy under evolving geopolitical conditions and the global transition toward a complex, multi-layered order.