To be or not to be: Roughness or long memory in volatility?

We develop a framework for composite likelihood estimation of parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes. We derive the asymptotic theory of the associated maximum composite likelihood estimator. We implement our approach on a pair of models that have been proposed to describe the random log-spot variance of financial asset returns. A simulation study shows that it delivers good performance in these settings and improves upon a method-of-moments estimation. In an empirical investigation, we inspect the dynamic of an intraday measure of the spot log-realized variance computed with high-frequency data from the cryptocurrency market. The evidence supports a mechanism, where the short- and long-term correlation structure of stochastic volatility are decoupled in order to capture its properties at different time scales. This is further backed by an analysis of the associated spot log-trading volume.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Econometrics
Published
2026-02-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2026.106193
Primary Topic
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Type
article
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article

To be or not to be: Roughness or long memory in volatility?

Mikkel Bennedsen, Kim Christensen, Peter Christensen
Journal of Econometrics
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
article

To be or not to be: Roughness or long memory in volatility?

Mikkel Bennedsen, Kim Christensen, Peter Christensen
article en

Abstract

We develop a framework for composite likelihood estimation of parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes. We derive the asymptotic theory of the associated maximum composite likelihood estimator. We implement our approach on a pair of models that have been proposed to describe the random log-spot variance of financial asset returns. A simulation study shows that it delivers good performance in these settings and improves upon a method-of-moments estimation. In an empirical investigation, we inspect the dynamic of an intraday measure of the spot log-realized variance computed with high-frequency data from the cryptocurrency market. The evidence supports a mechanism, where the short- and long-term correlation structure of stochastic volatility are decoupled in order to capture its properties at different time scales. This is further backed by an analysis of the associated spot log-trading volume.

Journal of EconometricsVol. 254
Danish Institute for International Studies (DK), Aarhus University (DK)
Openalex Percentile: Top 64%
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
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To be or not to be: Roughness or long memory in volatility? — Mikkel Bennedsen, Kim Christensen, et al. · Journal of Econometrics (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS