Cost modeling and policy insights for deploying two VVER-1200 reactors in the newcomer nuclear country of Bangladesh

The cost of nuclear power is a decisive factor in planning and building reactors, particularly in developing countries, where uncertainties in financial structures, key technical parameters, potential construction delays, and supply-chain constraints complicate economic assessment. This study provides a probabilistic techno-economic evaluation of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Project (Rooppur NPP) with two VVER-1200 reactors in Bangladesh, combining deterministic discounted cash flow modeling with 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulations and Sobol global sensitivity analysis. The novelty lies in integrating uncertainty quantification with policy-relevant scenarios, including concessional financing and capital subsidies, to assess impacts on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV), and internal rate of return (IRR). Results indicate a mean LCOE of $84/MWh (95% CI: $57–123), with best- and worst-case values of $51/MWh and $147/MWh, respectively. Weighted average cost of capital is the most sensitive driver, followed by fixed O&M costs and overnight capital costs. Construction delays of 4–8 years beyond the baseline 8-year schedule increase LCOE by 10–20%, highlighting the compounding effects of extended capital immobilization and deferred revenue. Policy simulations show that a 20% capital subsidy and/or 2% concessional financing rate reduce the LCOE to $44–62/MWh and improve both NPV and IRR, underscoring nuclear power's potential cost competitiveness relative to fossil fuels under carbon pricing. These findings provide actionable guidance for energy planners and policymakers in developing economies, informing project feasibility studies, power purchase agreements, and demonstrating that strategic financing and policy design are critical to unlocking low-carbon, reliable baseload nuclear power. • First probabilistic techno-economic assessment of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. • Mean LCOE $84/MWh; most sensitive to WACC, fixed O&M, and OCC. • 20% CAPEX subsidy or 2% concessional loan lowers LCOE to $50–62/MWh. • Carbon pricing boosts nuclear competitiveness versus coal and gas. • Offers policy guidance for nuclear planning in emerging economies.