Research on the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of the market-oriented allocation of land elements under sustainable development: a case study of Guizhou, China

Abstract Understanding the spatiotemporal differentiation and driving mechanisms of market-oriented land element allocation is crucial for promoting sustainable development, especially in ecologically fragile and economically transitional regions. Taking Guizhou Province, China, as a case study, this research explores the evolution patterns, spatial heterogeneity, and governance dynamics of land factor marketization from 2008 to 2022. Leveraging a comprehensive evaluation framework combined with the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, the findings indicate the following: (1) Temporal evolution demonstrates a distinctive two-phase evolution: steady upwards growth (2008–2019) driven by macroeconomic incentives and institutional reforms, followed by volatility and decline (2020–2022) influenced by external shocks, including COVID-19 and macroeconomic restructuring. The cyclical fluctuations underscore the vulnerability of land marketization to macrolevel uncertainties and highlight the stabilizing potential of adaptive interventions. (2) Pronounced spatial heterogeneities are evident. Rural land allocation has a northeast-to-southwest gradient shaped by ecological zoning and land consolidation efforts, whereas urban land has a northwest-to-southeast gradient driven by infrastructure investment and urbanization. A consistent five-year cyclical pattern emerges across regions systematically, revealing alternating phases of regional convergence and divergence in land factor flows. (3) Driving mechanisms present a dual-driven governance framework. Government interventions, such as land use planning, price regulation, and quota controls, enhance equity and manage risk. Moreover, market forces promote resource efficiency through responsive allocation. The heterogeneous effects of these driving factors across regions and time periods demonstrate the need for context-sensitive, differentiated policy approaches. This study contributes methodologically by validating the ability of the GTWR model to capture multidimensional spatial–temporal heterogeneity and theoretically by constructing a governance framework that links land marketization to sustainable development goals. The empirical insights offer actionable policy implications for harmonizing government regulation and market dynamics in land systems of underdeveloped, ecologically vulnerable regions.