Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Structural Path Tracing of Embodied Oil Flows in China

As a strategic energy source underpinning industrial security, oil’s resource consumption is often tied to its production site. However, its embedding in goods and trade-related transfer leads to a spatial dislocation between physical supply burden and economic consumption demand, masking the true structure of energy dependency. Focusing on China, a net exporter of embodied oil, this study uses a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model and structural path analysis (SPA) spanning the period from 2007 to 2017 to trace such flows. Key findings include: (1) China’s embodied oil flows expanded during the study period, with the country remaining a net exporter. (2) On the production side, embodied oil mainly flows out indirectly. Specifically, Liaoning and Shanghai are the core provinces for domestic indirect outflows, while Guangdong and Jiangsu lead in foreign trade exports. In terms of sectors, transportation, warehousing, and postal services play a pivotal role. (3) On the consumption side, flows are also primarily indirect. Guangdong and Jiangsu absorb the largest share of domestic flows, while Liaoning and Shanghai record the highest indirect import volumes. The construction and other service sectors emerge as the core consumers. Methodologically, this study goes beyond aggregate analysis by providing empirical support for optimizing the cross-regional allocation of oil resources and identifying key transmission nodes of energy supply risks. In terms of policy, it designs coordinated conservation strategies to enhance national oil security.