Spatial mismatch and inequality between ecological pressure and economic benefits embodied in agricultural trade

Agricultural trade can balance regional supply and demand but also induces spatial transfers of ecological pressure. However, few studies have combined the spatial transfers of ecological pressures with economic benefits to explore spatial mismatch and inequality. Understanding this relationship can reveal underlying reasons for the dilemma between economic development and ecological conservation. This study uses China as an example, combines the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with an environmentally extended multiregional input-output model to track spatial flows of Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) across provinces and establishes an Ecological Pressure Inequality index to quantify inequality by comparing them with value-added flows in time and space. The results show that northeast China bored net HANPP from central and western region, but it still need transferred 17.36 million yuan to those regions in 2012, in contrast, central China bore only 16.59% of the net HANPP yet still receiving 45.02% of the net value-added, revealing a significant spatial mismatch. After 2015, despite the increase in net HANPP transferred from western region to the northeast region, the net value added transferred to the northeast has been declining. At the provincial level, Anhui, Hunan, and Sichuan provinces transitioned toward dual-benefit positions, gaining economic advantages while offloading ecological pressure, whereas Jilin remained in a loss–loss state, suffering both ecological and economic deficits. Distant trade contributes more significantly to ecological inequality than adjacent trade. Stratified analysis reveals that variations in transportation accessibility, fiscal priority, and mechanization jointly characterize the structural heterogeneity of the mismatch across provinces. The study also emphasizes that distant trade cross-regional governance requires attention in ecological compensation. The methodology and insights offer valuable guidance for addressing similar sustainability challenges in other countries experiencing rapid economic development and regional disparities. • Trace the interprovincial HANPP flows by integrating the LPJ-DGVM and MRIO model. • Although net HANPP transfers from the west to the northeast increased, the net value added to the northeast declined. • Distant trade contributed more significantly to ecological inequality than adjacent trade.