A Spatial Analysis of Factors Affecting Total Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: The Role of Digitalization

Abstract This study examines the relationship between digitalization and total fertility rates (TFR) across OECD countries over the period 2000–2021, accounting for spatial interdependence in fertility dynamics. Digitalization is conceptualized as a multidimensional process and is primarily measured using fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, complemented by mobile broadband penetration and ICT goods exports as robustness indicators. Employing spatial panel econometric techniques and comparing the results with non-spatial fixed-effects models, the analysis reveals a robust positive association between digitalization and realized fertility at the macro level. The preferred spatial error model indicates significant spatial dependence, suggesting that fertility outcomes are shaped by regionally correlated unobserved factors, such as shared welfare regimes, cultural proximity, and synchronized economic conditions, rather than direct spillovers of fertility levels. The results further identify an inverted U-shaped relationship between income per capita and fertility, as well as a U-shaped association between female labor-force participation and fertility, consistent with evolving work–family arrangements in advanced economies. While digitalization and female labor-force participation each display independent relationships with fertility outcomes, their interaction does not attain statistical significance. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of digitalization and spatial context in understanding contemporary fertility patterns and suggest that coordinated investments in digital infrastructures alongside family-supportive institutions may help mitigate persistently low fertility in OECD countries.