Attribution of the 2023 Beijing extreme rainfall event in the context of climate change

In late July 2023, following the landfall of Typhoon Doksuri in southeast China, north China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event, known as the 2023 Beijing extreme rainfall event . This event resulted in widespread flooding, river overflows, and numerous landslides, causing significant societal and economic impacts. During this post-landfall event, 1379 meteorological stations in north China recorded their highest ever 24-hour accumulated rainfall, with a maximum of 640 mm. Here, we investigate the large-scale environmental drivers for this event and assess the influence of climate change, via an analytical approach. We first attribute the unusual northward passage of Typhoon Doksuri’s remnant to an anomalously strong North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) and link the subsequent persistent extreme precipitation in north China to the presence of a strong North Blocking (NB) related also to the expanded NPSH. Notably, such anomalous features of both NPSH and NB resemble their long-term trends under global warming. Based on observations from 1951 to 2023, we found 46 typhoons exhibiting a similar northward post-landfall trajectory after making landfall in southeast China. Among these, 11 occurred under anomalously strong NB conditions, whereas only 3 were under weak NB conditions. Our further composite analysis indicates that the presence of anomalous NB not only increases the likelihood of typhoon remnants affecting north China but also amplifies the precipitation rate. Finally, we show that the frequency and persistence of strong NB conditions have significantly increased over the past 44 years (1980–2023), closely associated with a strengthening NPSH and rapid sea surface temperature warming, with additional modulation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our analytical approach demonstrates the increasing risk of post-landfall extreme precipitation events in north China with climate change.