Addressing scientific uncertainty in marine crustacean fisheries stock assessment and management

Abstract Marine crustacean capture fisheries have been contributing increasingly to global aquatic food production in recent decades, helping secure socioeconomic benefits. During 2000–2022 the total landings of marine crustaceans rose by ~ 6.7% on average while expanding spatially and taxonomically, doubling their contribution to global fisheries landings. Although efforts to improve the data collection that informs stock assessments and management decisions have risen to promote sustainability of these fisheries, many stocks remain data-limited and unassessed. Among assessed stocks, while some continue experiencing excessive fishing pressures and remain depleted, fishing pressures have declined for most. Here we review recent progress made to stock assessment methods and management measures applied to data-limited and -rich stocks across the globe with particular emphasis on addressing sources of uncertainty. Although an increasing number of assessment methods have been developed to account for various types of uncertainty, evaluation of these methods applied to crustaceans is still limited. Less than one-fifth of the recent assessments accounted for multiple uncertainties using flexible methods like integrated models. However, uncertainties associated with crustaceans’ unique biology were not fully accounted for in estimating key demographic parameters in many assessments. Our review also identifies areas of research to address remaining knowledge gaps, including uncertainties associated with spatial stock structure and dynamic ecosystem processes, and management implications of accounting for uncertainties. We recommend efforts to develop integrated methods robust to assumptions and uncertainties in a range of data situations be prioritized to better inform the management of crustacean fisheries under ongoing environmental change. Graphical abstract