Water Use and Maize Productivity Under Climate Variability in Irrigation Districts of Sinaloa, Mexico: A Panel Econometric Analysis

Efficient irrigation water management is critical in regions subject to high hydroclimatic variability, where agricultural production strongly depends on how water resources are allocated and used. The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of distributed irrigation water volumes on maize production and to evaluate differences in irrigation performance among irrigation districts (IDs) in Sinaloa, Mexico, for the period 1999–2022. Official records from the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) for seven IDs were analyzed using a fixed-effects panel data model based on a balanced panel database constructed from annual irrigation water distribution and maize production statistics, which control for unobserved district-level heterogeneity and interannual variability to identify the water–production relationship. In addition, a Relative Water Performance Index (RWPI) based on water productivity was computed to standardize comparisons across districts and agricultural cycles characterized by contrasting hydroclimatic conditions, including the extreme frost event of 2011 and the severe drought of 2012. The results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between irrigation water volumes and maize production, along with marked structural heterogeneity across districts. The RWPI captured generalized performance declines during extreme years and differentiated districts according to productive stability, reflecting management adjustments, as well as crop rotation or reconversion strategies. Overall, the combined econometric and index-based approach provides quantitative evidence to support adaptive irrigation water management under climate variability.