What Are the Channels of Equality of Opportunity Perceptions in Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom?

Views on equality of opportunity influence perceptions of fairness and redistributive attitudes, and yet the sources associated with these views remain underexplored. This study investigates how individual experiences, socialization with friends and family, and media consumption are related to perceptions of equality of opportunity across three welfare state regimes in Europe: Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Using original cross-national survey data, we analyze responses to a statement on current levels of equality of opportunity, employing—among other methods—an inverse probability weighting approach. Findings reveal moderate cross-country variation, with higher optimism about equality of opportunity in the United Kingdom than in Germany and Sweden. Personal experiences are the most influential factor: upward mobility tends to be associated with beliefs in equality, whereas downward mobility is linked to perceptions of inequality. Socialization with family and friends links to perceptions to a more limited extent. Media consumption also plays a role; individuals who watch reality TV shows are more likely to perceive greater equality of opportunity. As shown by previous research, however, this optimism may have counterintuitive effects; by fostering the belief that opportunity is already widespread, it can dampen public support for redistributive measures, potentially reinforcing existing inequalities.