Long‐Term Trends of Multiple Drought Types and Their Characteristics From <scp>ERA5</scp> Since 1940 in the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT In the context of global warming, comprehending the long‐term trends of multiple drought types and their characteristics is crucial for mitigating and adapting to drought risks. However, studies on long‐term trends rarely incorporate linear and non‐linear features, a gap that requires more attention. Therefore, this study aimed to address this gap by exploring the linear and non‐linear trends of multiple drought types (i.e., meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought) and their characteristics (i.e., duration, frequency, intensity and severity) from 1940 to 2023 in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The main conclusions were as follows: (1) agricultural drought was most likely to occur, followed by meteorological and hydrological droughts among three droughts in the YRB, especially in Wujiang River Basin and Yibin‐Yichang Reach. Meteorological drought showed the highest drought frequency (DF) and intensity (DI), and hydrological drought showed the highest duration (DD) and severity (DS) and (2) meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts were projected to intensify in 56.94%, 74.62% and 73.31% of the YRB, respectively. The trends exhibited a decrease in meteorological DD and DS, and an increase in agricultural DF and the hydrological drought characteristics in most of the YRB and (3) drought indices and their characteristics exhibited a negative correlation, while a positive correlation among the drought indices or characteristics (with a maximum kappa value of 0.85). This study provides a refined understanding of drought evolution and critical information for region‐specific water resources management and climate adaptation strategies.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Climatology
Published
2026-02-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70286
Primary Topic
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Type
article
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article

Long‐Term Trends of Multiple Drought Types and Their Characteristics From ERA5 Since 1940 in the Yangtze River Basin

Lu Chen, Ping Yao, Kaiya Sun, Caiyuan Wang et al.
International Journal of Climatology
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
article

Long‐Term Trends of Multiple Drought Types and Their Characteristics From ERA5 Since 1940 in the Yangtze River Basin

Lu Chen, Ping Yao, Kaiya Sun, Caiyuan Wang, Peng Yang, Yanchao ZHU, Heqing Huang, Jun Xia, Xixi Lu
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the context of global warming, comprehending the long‐term trends of multiple drought types and their characteristics is crucial for mitigating and adapting to drought risks. However, studies on long‐term trends rarely incorporate linear and non‐linear features, a gap that requires more attention. Therefore, this study aimed to address this gap by exploring the linear and non‐linear trends of multiple drought types (i.e., meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought) and their characteristics (i.e., duration, frequency, intensity and severity) from 1940 to 2023 in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The main conclusions were as follows: (1) agricultural drought was most likely to occur, followed by meteorological and hydrological droughts among three droughts in the YRB, especially in Wujiang River Basin and Yibin‐Yichang Reach. Meteorological drought showed the highest drought frequency (DF) and intensity (DI), and hydrological drought showed the highest duration (DD) and severity (DS) and (2) meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts were projected to intensify in 56.94%, 74.62% and 73.31% of the YRB, respectively. The trends exhibited a decrease in meteorological DD and DS, and an increase in agricultural DF and the hydrological drought characteristics in most of the YRB and (3) drought indices and their characteristics exhibited a negative correlation, while a positive correlation among the drought indices or characteristics (with a maximum kappa value of 0.85). This study provides a refined understanding of drought evolution and critical information for region‐specific water resources management and climate adaptation strategies.

International Journal of Climatology
National University of Singapore (SG), China University of Geosciences (CN), Wuhan University (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 73%
Hydrology and Drought Analysis
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