Ukraine

This Technical Assistance followed a request by the National Bank of Ukraine for a review of their existing Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). Although the NBU had an established FPAS, which benefited from previous IMF TA, the existing model-based forecasting and policy analysis faced significant challenges and uncertainty due to the ongoing Russian invasion. In addition, there was a need for a more detailed monetary policy block to reflect the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework combined with exchange rate and capital flow management measures needed to maintain economic and price stability during the Russian invasion.