Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of global mangrove change

• Global mangrove area slightly increased from 2000 to 2022. • Gains and losses varied sharply across regions with Southeast Asia losing most. • Regional models outperformed the global model emphasizing localized driver effects. • Mangrove gain and loss co-occurred due to non-linear interactions of key factors. Mangroves are vital coastal ecosystems that provide crucial ecological functions, but they exhibit pronounced dynamics of both gain and loss over time. Although previous studies have analyzed global drivers of mangrove change, integrated models that distinguish between gains and losses while accounting for regional variability remain limited. Using a global time-series dataset of mangrove distribution from 2000 to 2022, this study characterizes the spatiotemporal patterns of mangrove gain and loss, and employs machine learning models at global and regional scales to identify key drivers. Our results indicated a modest overall increase in global mangrove area over 2000–2022, accompanied by pronounced regional variability. Southeast Asia experienced substantial losses, whereas South Asia, Africa, and Oceania generally showed gains. Regional models demonstrated superior predictive power ( R ² up to 0.8949) compared to the global model, emphasizing localized driver effects such as coastline accessibility, protected area status, and agricultural suitability. The coexistence of mangrove gain and loss within similar areas highlights complex, non-linear ecosystem dynamics. These findings enhance understanding of mangrove change mechanisms and offer critical insights to inform targeted conservation and climate adaptation strategies worldwide.