Conditions and Opportunities for Reproducing the Passenger Automobile Fleet

This article describes the reproduction of Russia’s fleet of passenger automobiles according to several parameters with different degrees of detail. To analyze potential effects on economic growth and prosperity, indicators of the availability of automobiles to the population are considered as well as the structural parameters of the fleet. The share of older automobiles in the age pattern of the Russian automobile fleet has been on the rise since 2014. In 2024, the share of automobiles aged older than ten years was 71%. In the basic (inertial) motorization scenario, this share might rise even higher, which is contingent with the risk of unplanned automobile breakdowns and man-induced disasters. Fleet modernization scenarios, where the age pattern changes in favour of automobiles aged ten years or younger, presuppose a rise in the supplied number of new automobiles. Considering the target of cutting the share of imported automobiles down to the figures attained in 2021, the modernization of the automobile fleet might require a domestic automobile output of 1 600 000 units by 2030, 2 600 000 units by 2035, and 4 000 000 units by 2050, which makes it necessary to expand the production capacities by 1.7 times and maintain the domestic purchasing power.