Deep Learning-Based Detection and Forecasting of Performance Losses in Solar PV Systems Using Multi-Sensor Data

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are subject to nonlinear performance degradation caused by operational and environmental factors, which limits reliable energy production. Most existing studies focus on power output forecasting and fail to isolate intrinsic efficiency losses from meteorological variability. This study proposes a degradation-aware deep learning framework for predicting PV performance loss using multi-sensor time-series data. Performance degradation is formulated as a reference-based performance loss ratio derived from the deviation between observed power output and an ideal physics-informed reference model. A hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture is employed to jointly capture local feature representations and long-term temporal degradation dynamics. Model evaluation is conducted using a synthetically generated yet physically consistent dataset, informed by real PV measurements to ensure real-world relevance. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CNN–LSTM model outperforms baseline approaches, including persistence, linear regression, and XGBoost, particularly in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and normalized root mean square error (RMSE). Additional analyses confirm stable error behavior and temporal generalization, highlighting the suitability of the proposed approach for degradation-aware performance monitoring and predictive maintenance in PV systems.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Applied Sciences
Published
2026-02-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/app16041709
Primary Topic
Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Deep Learning-Based Detection and Forecasting of Performance Losses in Solar PV Systems Using Multi-Sensor Data

Erhan Baran
Applied Sciences
Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques
article

Deep Learning-Based Detection and Forecasting of Performance Losses in Solar PV Systems Using Multi-Sensor Data

Erhan Baran
article en

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are subject to nonlinear performance degradation caused by operational and environmental factors, which limits reliable energy production. Most existing studies focus on power output forecasting and fail to isolate intrinsic efficiency losses from meteorological variability. This study proposes a degradation-aware deep learning framework for predicting PV performance loss using multi-sensor time-series data. Performance degradation is formulated as a reference-based performance loss ratio derived from the deviation between observed power output and an ideal physics-informed reference model. A hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture is employed to jointly capture local feature representations and long-term temporal degradation dynamics. Model evaluation is conducted using a synthetically generated yet physically consistent dataset, informed by real PV measurements to ensure real-world relevance. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CNN–LSTM model outperforms baseline approaches, including persistence, linear regression, and XGBoost, particularly in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and normalized root mean square error (RMSE). Additional analyses confirm stable error behavior and temporal generalization, highlighting the suitability of the proposed approach for degradation-aware performance monitoring and predictive maintenance in PV systems.

Applied SciencesVol. 16(4)
Gazi University (TR)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 64%
Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.