Driving security? U.S. auto industrial policy in a changing world

Abstract Industrial policy is in increasing use in both the U.S. and other countries. The auto industry, however, has benefited from industrial policy even during decades when it was out of favor, from NAFTA to the 2009 auto bailouts, IRA’s EV tax credits, and now auto tariffs. If industrial policy should be applied only very selectively, should the auto industry be an industrial policy target today? Now is a dynamic time in the global auto industry. The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is upending a long-stable competitive landscape. China’s indigenous EV automakers have become major producers and exporters in a handful of years. The Chinese government is pervasively involved in its EV industry, while having developed a national monopoly position in global EV supply chains. Adding to security considerations, domestic auto manufacturing offers contingent defense manufacturing capability, while the computerization of vehicles raises new surveillance and cyberattack risks. This article examines today’s U.S. auto industrial policy in international and technological context, reviews the short track record of Biden EV policies, discusses how we should evaluate Trump’s auto industrial policy, and closes with recommendations for where industrial policy would be best focused to support the U.S. auto sector.