Characteristics of Ice Drift Movement and Assessment of Ice Jam Susceptibility in the Upper Heilongjiang River During the Spring Ice Jam Breakup Period

The presence of ice cover significantly alters the hydraulic characteristics of river channels, and the evolutionary law of ice drift velocity is crucial for understanding the ice-jam floods (IJFs) formation mechanism during the spring IJFs breakup period. Based on miniature ice buoy locators and Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing data, this study systematically analyzes the channel characteristics of the upper Heilongjiang River and the regulatory effect of channel morphology on ice drift velocity. The results show that the river width of the upper Heilongjiang River exhibits a widening trend, with a variation range of 212 to 1292 m, characterized by large longitudinal dispersion and significant spatial variability. During the 2024 spring IJFs breakup period, the ice drift velocity ranges from 0.57 to 3.48 m/s with an average of 1.92 m/s, and a significant decreasing trend is observed when the ice drift passes through the entrances/exits of meandering bends and the confluences of distributaries in braided channels. The longitudinal distribution law of ice drift velocity revealed in this study can provide key data support and scientific reference for the accurate prediction of IJFs and the prevention and control of IJFs.