Analysis of land use changes in the 19th–21st century: the case of Juodaičiai, Lithuania

The primary problem of land use changes from the 19th to the 21st century lies in human-driven landscape transformations that impact ecosystems, biodiversity, and sustainable management. The study examines changes in land use in Juodaičiai eldership (Jurbarkas district) during the 19th–21st centuries. GIS technologies and digitized 19th-21st century maps were used to identify changes in land use. The study utilized military-topographic maps of the Russian Empire (1860–1915), interwar Lithuanian topographic maps (1933–1940), Soviet topographic maps (1988), the Lithuanian georeferenced spatial data set, LIDAR data (2009–2010), and orthophoto maps, analyzed using ArcGIS Pro software. The study used 3D terrain models and GIS technologies to analyze land-use changes. It found that from the 19th to 20th century, agricultural land expanded by 39.8%, mainly at the cost of forests, which decreased by 42.4%. During the Soviet era, forest areas increased by 12.7%, while urbanized areas shrank. In the early 21st century, forest and agricultural land remained stable, but intensive logging, affecting 23.6% of current forest areas, continues. This study reveals that while the land use in Juodaičiai eldership has undergone significant shifts over two centuries, the persistent tension between human activity and environmental sustainability remains the defining challenge for future landscape management.