Ozone burden in a changing climate – contrasting the costs of emission controls and benefits for health and agriculture in Austria

Abstract Climate change alters atmospheric chemistry and meteorological conditions in ways that exacerbate surface ozone pollution, with consequences for human health and agriculture. In Austria, where ambitious emission controls have improved air quality in the past, rising temperatures and elevated methane abundances in the context of climate change may counteract these gains. This paper assesses the societal welfare effects of ozone exposure in Austria under future climate scenarios by comparing a medium (RCP4.5) to a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario for 2030 and 2050. We further introduce a novel scenario (RCP8.5+), in which only Austrian ozone precursor emissions are more stringently controlled under a global high-emissions context, to evaluate the effectiveness of national emission controls. Net effects are quantified by integrating market costs – agricultural yield changes and emission control costs assessed in a computable general equilibrium model – with non-market health costs. Results show that in 2030, emission control costs in RCP4.5 exceed the societal welfare benefits of a reduced ozone burden compared to RCP8.5. By 2050, however, benefits outweigh costs with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of seven. This shift reflects higher upfront control costs in 2030, which lead to sustained air quality improvements through mid-century. In RCP8.5+, national emission controls yield strong benefits with a BCR of eight. While both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5+) reduce yield losses compared to RCP8.5, health benefits dominate the societal welfare gains. These findings underscore the local benefits of national air quality management, highlighting its effectiveness as an abatement strategy for managing ozone risks in a warming climate.