Fueling Afghanistan s Future: Drivers and Drag Factors of Economic Growth

Economic growth is paramount for enhancing living standards, alleviating poverty, and fostering overall societal well-being. It facilitates greater access to essential services, improved infrastructure, and expanded opportunities for education and employment—a necessity no less critical for Afghanistan. This study investigates the dynamic linkages between economic growth (proxied by GDP per capita) and key determinants in Afghanistan from 1990-91 to 2022-23. The analysis examines the roles of population dynamics (total population and life expectancy), employment (share of employers), international trade (imports), and technological assistance (technical cooperation grants) explicitly, recognizing their critical importance for national development. Short-run and long-run ARDL results reveal that increased life expectancy, technological advancements, employment opportunities, and trade activities positively contribute to economic growth. Conversely, while population growth stimulates short-term economic expansion, it exerts long-term pressure on resources. Imports (IMP) also exhibit a negative association, suggesting that increased imports may have a detrimental impact on the dependent variable (GDP) in the long run. To capitalize on these findings, the Afghan government should prioritize investments in health, education, and technology, foster employment opportunities, facilitate trade, and implement sustainable population policies. This study underscores the importance of such strategies in propelling Afghanistan towards sustainable economic growth and development, providing a foundation for future research endeavors.