Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought in an arid region of the Indian desert using Standardized Precipitation Index

Droughts are an environmental hazard that disrupts the hydrological system and ecological balance around the globe. Arid and semi-arid regions are facing issues related to socioeconomic stability and water supply. In addition, the frequency and intensity of drought are progressively amplified due to climate change in semi-arid and arid environments. Rajasthan, a region in India known for its aridity, has also experienced numerous severe droughts in recent decades. Thus, the principal objectives of this study are i) to assess the spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological dryness in twelve districts over the last three decades (1993–2022) and ii) to demarcate the drought-prone hotspot region over the arid regions of western India. In this systematic study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used based on the monthly rainfall data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Spatial variations and regional disparities in Barmer, Bikaner, Churu, Hanumangarh, Jaisalmer, Jalore, Jhunjhunu, Jodhpur, Nagaur, Pali, Sikar, and Sri Ganganagar districts of the arid regions of the Indian Subcontinent have been evaluated using the Geographical Information System (GIS) and Python script. Results indicate that widespread mild to moderate droughts (SPI 0 to −1.49) occurred throughout the seasons, with notable severe episodes (SPI ≤ −1.5) in 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2018. More pointedly, the Jaisalmer and Barmer areas have been affected by severe to extreme droughts during periods of high monsoon activity. In addition, the incidence of drought episodes increased between 2003 and 2012 but declined thereafter. Regions are experiencing increased aridity due to low rainfall and high temperatures, particularly during the pre-monsoon months. This study highlights the effectiveness of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in monitoring seasonal and long-term drought trends, filling a gap in district-scale analyses. The outcomes reveal that short-term management and long-term strategic planning are vital to manage drought impacts, improve water security, and strengthen agricultural resilience amid increasing climate uncertainty.