The Bukele Effect in Latin America

President Bukele has garnered domestic and international acclaim for his extreme mano dura policies to combat gangs and crime in El Salvador. While these measures appear to have reduced homicide rates in El Salvador, they come at the cost of violating human rights and eroding democracy. Still, some politicians around the region have applauded Bukele’s model, and advocated implementing it in their own countries. To understand Bukele’s appeal, we examine public perceptions of insecurity and mano dura in countries that historically have not employed these policies: Ecuador, Costa Rica, Chile, and Uruguay. With data collected in 32 focus groups , we examine how citizens perceive the problem of insecurity and how they evaluate the efficacy of different methods to fight crime. We find that while there is substantial support for Bukele and his security model, willingness to absorb its costs varies across these cases. In Ecuador, citizens were more willing to replicate the Bukele model despite its toll on human rights and democracy. In Uruguay, support for Bukele's model was tempered by distrust of authoritarianism, leading most participants to reject it. Chile and Costa Rica occupy the middle of the spectrum, with only some parts of Bukele’s model garnering support.