Mapping the International Supply and Demand Side of Women’s Political Leadership in Crises

Abstract In this article, we offer a theoretical framework outlining the conditions under which different types of crises, from wars to natural disasters, increase the probability of a woman ascending to a country’s highest office. We first draw on existing research to identify and develop four different supply and demand pathways that can confer a relative advantage to women running for executive office in times of instability: Traitcasting, Structural Shifts, the “Glass Cliff,” and Policy Recalibration. We then draw from the International Relations and Comparative Politics literatures to identify when each of these mechanisms is likely to be most salient. We suggest that a state’s domestic political institutions and norms along with the crisis characteristics operate as intervening variables, conditioning the salience of the four pathways. After outlining these intervening variables, the third section presents initial congruence tests on the rise of six women to executive office. In doing so, we provide preliminary evidence for this novel theoretical framework on women’s crisis leadership that can be further refined and empirically tested in future research.