Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s
The atmospheric methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year<sup>-1</sup>) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year<sup>-1</sup> in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inversions constrained by observation- and model-based prescribed hydroxyl radical (OH) fields and CH<sub>4</sub> atmospheric data, we show that a drop of OH radicals in 2020-2021, followed by recovery in 2022-2023, accounted for 83% of year-on-year variations in the CH<sub>4</sub> growth rate, the rest being explained by wetland and inland water emissions, which increased between 2019 and 2020-2022 [+8.6 ± 2.6 teragrams of CH<sub>4</sub> per year (TgCH<sub>4</sub> year<sup>-1</sup>)] and then decreased between 2022 and 2023 (-9.9 ± 3.3 TgCH<sub>4</sub> year<sup>-1</sup>). Most emission changes from 2019 to 2023 occurred in northern tropical wetlands in Africa and Asia, whereas South American wetlands emissions declined and Arctic emissions increased after 2019.
Authors
- Zhiyun Ouyang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0927-0499)
- Gerard Rocher‐Ros (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7853-2531)
- Kunxiaojia Yuan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1336-5768)
- Glen P. Peters (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7889-8568)
- Xiaoning Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3358-7808)
- Dongmei Feng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3141-0371)
- Yu Zhu
- Xin Lan
- H. Tian
- Y. Wang
- P. Raymond
- P. Bousquet
- R. B. Jackson
- Q. Zhu
- S. E. Michel
- X. Dou
- J. Chang
- F. Li
- M. Zhao
- B. Poulter
- Y. Cai
- Y. Li
- P. Ciais
- S. Sun
- J. G. Canadell
- Z. Liu
- C. A. Quinn
- X. Lin
- D. A. Hauglustaine
- Y. Zhang
- M. Li
- S. Peng
- N. Pan
- M. Saunois
- W. Yuan
- X. Tian
- M. S. Johnson
- B. Zheng
- Y. Zhao
- X. Yu
Institutions
- Forest Institute (US)
- Boston College (US)
- Albany State University (US)
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- Ames Research Center (US)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Climate Central (US)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Southern Methodist University (US)
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Université Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Westlake University (CN)
- Yale University (US)
- University at Albany, State University of New York (US)
- Sustainability Institute (ZA)
- Earth Science Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
- CEA Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (CN)
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (US)
- University of Houston (US)
- Ocean University of China (CN)
- University of Cincinnati (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Zhejiang University (CN)
- Auburn University (US)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Stanford University (US)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science
- Published
- 2026-02-05
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adx8262
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 109.87