Probabilistic analysis of thaw settlement and serviceability in Arctic embankments: A case study on the ITH

Permafrost degradation due to climate change presents a significant geohazard to Arctic transportation infrastructure, introducing high uncertainty in soil behavior and thermal response. This study introduces a Python interface integrated with the thermal modelling software TEMP/W to conduct Monte Carlo simulations for probabilistic thaw settlement assessment. Serviceability is evaluated based on International Roughness Index (IRI) thresholds, and an optimization module identifies site-specific grading intervals. Applied to 10 sites along the Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH), results reveal spatial variability in thaw behavior, with thinner embankments showing greater settlement variability due to soil heterogeneity. The methodology quantifies the hazard component of geotechnical risk, providing a framework for risk-informed maintenance and reliability-based design of infrastructure on degrading permafrost. • Soil moisture content and embankment thickness control thaw settlement variability. • Probabilistic serviceability assessment captures uncertainty in permafrost degradation. • Optimization analysis defines cost-effective grading intervals for Arctic roads.