Drivers of electricity production and energy transition in Africa : evidence from a panel data econometric model

Access to reliable electricity remains a pressing challenge across Africa, where population growth and development ambitions intensify energy needs. This study explores the structural drivers of electricity production across 41 African countries over the period 2000–2022, focusing on the interplay between economic performance, demographic trends, energy demand, and the evolving energy mix. Employing a log-log panel data econometric model with random effects, we estimate the elasticities of key determinants. The analysis reveals that electricity demand is the dominant factor influencing production, while renewable energy, though still emerging, now exhibits a slightly stronger impact than fossil fuels. These findings highlight both the opportunities and constraints facing Africa’s energy transition and provide evidence-based insights to guide policymakers toward more resilient, demand-driven, and sustainable electricity strategies.