Apparent Global Increase in Cloud Droplet Number Concentration After 2022 Attributed to MODIS Orbital Drift

Abstract A long‐term, consistent satellite record of cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) is essential for understanding aerosol‐cloud interactions and their climate effects. However, the Aqua MODIS‐retrieved N d exhibits an unexpected and substantial increase over the near‐global oceans after 2022, contradicting the expected decline from continued emission reduction efforts. Here we demonstrate that this surge is not physical but largely an artifact of sensor orbital drift, which alters viewing geometry and solar illumination. By leveraging concurrent Suomi‐NPP VIIRS observations unaffected by drift, we developed an empirical correction that removes this artificial signal and quantified global mean N d artificial biases of +2.4 cm −3 in 2023 and +5.0 cm −3 in 2024. These biases substantially distort the N d trends, reversing the previously decreasing global N d trend into an apparent strong rise after 2022. These findings highlight the critical need to correct for such artifacts when constructing satellite‐based climate data records.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-02-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120318
Primary Topic
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Apparent Global Increase in Cloud Droplet Number Concentration After 2022 Attributed to MODIS Orbital Drift

Jihu Liu, Yannian Zhu, Mengdi Wang, Yichuan Wang et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
article

Apparent Global Increase in Cloud Droplet Number Concentration After 2022 Attributed to MODIS Orbital Drift

Jihu Liu, Yannian Zhu, Mengdi Wang, Yichuan Wang, Yang Cao, Daniel Rosenfeld
article en

Abstract

Abstract A long‐term, consistent satellite record of cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) is essential for understanding aerosol‐cloud interactions and their climate effects. However, the Aqua MODIS‐retrieved N d exhibits an unexpected and substantial increase over the near‐global oceans after 2022, contradicting the expected decline from continued emission reduction efforts. Here we demonstrate that this surge is not physical but largely an artifact of sensor orbital drift, which alters viewing geometry and solar illumination. By leveraging concurrent Suomi‐NPP VIIRS observations unaffected by drift, we developed an empirical correction that removes this artificial signal and quantified global mean N d artificial biases of +2.4 cm −3 in 2023 and +5.0 cm −3 in 2024. These biases substantially distort the N d trends, reversing the previously decreasing global N d trend into an apparent strong rise after 2022. These findings highlight the critical need to correct for such artifacts when constructing satellite‐based climate data records.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(3)
Hebrew University of Jerusalem (IL), Nanjing University (CN)
Climate action, Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
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Apparent Global Increase in Cloud Droplet Number Concentration After 2022 Attributed to MODIS Orbital Drift — Jihu Liu, Yannian Zhu, et al. · Geophysical Research Letters (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS