Probabilistic Management of Uncertainty in Innovative Construction Projects

This extended conference abstract evaluates the limitations of traditional deterministic planning methods like CPM compared to probabilistic approaches for managing uncertainty in construction projects. Through a comparative analysis of a rural house built using conventional methods versus 3D printing technology, the study utilizes a three-phase methodology incorporating CPM scheduling and Monte Carlo simulations to model schedule risks. The results demonstrate that while 3D printing offers shorter estimated durations, it exhibits significantly higher variability due to its innovative nature, leading the authors to conclude that integrating probabilistic modeling provides a superior framework for anticipating deviations and managing the inherent uncertainty of emerging construction technologies. +4