What Factors Explain the Current Arctic Albedo and Its Future Change?

Abstract The Arctic has experienced rapid sea ice loss and a substantial surface albedo decline, altering its radiation budget. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models capture these trends but show considerable inter‐model spread in the magnitude, distribution, and seasonality of Arctic surface albedo. Over land, spread in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) and CMIP6 is associated with snow cover variations, while over the ocean, where sea ice dominates, the sources are less clear. We compare CMIP6 simulations with observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and develop a decomposition method to quantify contributions from sea ice albedo, concentration, and extent. Over the Arctic Ocean, all three factors contribute to inter‐model spread in CMIP6. In AMIP, despite prescribed sea ice concentrations, we were surprised to find an inter‐model spread in Arctic Ocean albedo similar to that in CMIP6, driven solely by sea ice albedo. Applying the decomposition to future projections shows that the largest decline occurs in the Central Arctic, driven primarily by reductions in sea ice extent. After 2045, sea ice extent emerges as the dominant driver, highlighting ice edge retreat as key to future albedo decline. These findings pinpoint key sources of inter‐model spread in Arctic surface albedo and offer insights into quantifying shortwave (SW) radiative effect associated with sea ice responses in future projections.