Economic Resilience Under Sustainability Uncertainty: Wavelet Quantile Insights From Energy Crises, Oil Market Volatility, and Supply Chain Disruptions

ABSTRACT Understanding the resilience of global economies amidst increasing natural and man‐made disruptions is crucial for effective policymaking in an increasingly uncertain and interconnected world. However, most existing studies analyze such disruptions in isolation, overlooking their compounded and interactive effects on economic resilience. This study addresses that gap by examining how sustainability uncertainty, energy market volatility, supply chain pressures, and oil market shocks collectively influence global economic resilience. Using monthly data from November 2002 to December 2023, we analyze six key indicators: the sustainability uncertainty index (SUI), the energy uncertainty index (EUI), real commodity factor prices (RCF), oil supply shocks (OSS), oil inventory demand shocks (ODS), and global supply chain pressure (SCP). These indicators are employed to assess their dynamic effects on the Global economic condition index (ECI), a proxy for resilience. A wavelet‐based approach is utilized to capture time‐frequency interactions and nonlinear causality among the variables. The findings reveal that the ECI is most strongly influenced by sustainability and energy uncertainties, particularly during periods of economic weakness, while SCP and OSS amplify downturn effects in the short term. In contrast, RCF shows positive long‐term associations with resilience, and SCP and the SUI display increasingly supportive long‐run relationships, which may reflect adaptive adjustments rather than causal stabilizing effects. These results underscore the importance of robust ESG frameworks, diversified energy strategies, and resilient supply chains with regard to supporting long‐term economic stability in line with global sustainability goals.