Climate change-driven geographical shifts in Aspergillus species and the implications for plant and human health

<i>Aspergillus</i> species cause severe infections and are widespread environmental saprotrophs. Climate change is expected to alter the ecological niches and spread of fungal pathogens. Here, we use a global metabarcoding dataset and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current and future environmental suitability of three pathogenic <i>Aspergilli</i>: <i>A. fumigatus sensu lato</i>, <i>A. flavus sensu lato</i>, and <i>A. niger sensu lato</i>. We show that the suitability of <i>A. fumigatus</i> is higher in temperate climates, while <i>A. flavus</i> and <i>A. niger</i> are more suitable in warmer regions. Future climate scenarios suggest a northward shift of habitat suitability for all three species, particularly under severe warming. We combine our MaxEnt model with spatial models of crop growing areas and human population, and show that geographical shift will occur on <i>Aspergillus</i> species along different climate scenarios. These predictions can guide experimental validation efforts and provide a base model for further refinement for other pathogenic fungi.