Diagnosis of the Brazil nut value chain in the Amazonas, Brazil: econometric and market analysis of a traditional agroforestry system

Abstract The Brazil nut ( Bertholletia excelsa H.B.K.) is one of the most valuable non-timber forest products in the Amazon, yet its production chain remains underexplored in terms of structure, efficiency, and territorial dynamics. This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution, productive performance, and socioeconomic drivers of the Brazil nut value chain in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, identifying critical bottlenecks and opportunities for sustainable development. To this end, official data from 2010 to 2023 were used to perform descriptive spatial analysis and log–log econometric modeling. Results show a high concentration of production in the microregions of Purus, Rio Negro/Solimões, and Jutaí/Solimões/Juruá, where traditional extractivism, community governance, and fluvial accessibility favor regular output. In contrast, regions such as Alto Rio Negro and Baixo Amazonas face infrastructural limitations and low organizational capacity. The econometric model indicates that a 10% increase in the number of extractivists raises total production by 15.62%, and a 10% increase in yield results in a 10.06% increase, highlighting the labor-dependence of the chain. Furthermore, average producer price positively affects output, while higher per capita income correlates negatively, suggesting that extractivism tends to be abandoned as other income sources emerge. These findings reveal a structurally vulnerable chain that lacks technological intensification and value aggregation. Public policies focused on infrastructure, cooperativism, technological inclusion, and socio-biodiversity valorization are essential to enhance the competitiveness and resilience of the Brazil nut sector in the Amazon.