Between “New Axis of Evil” and “Paper Tiger”: Expectations and Reality of the 25-Year Iran China Cooperation Agreement

The past few years have seen a steady flow of articles, reports, and media commentary on China and the Middle East. In both popular and academic discourse, there is a growing debate about whether or when China will play a larger role in the region, and what the implications are for regional and global politics. 1 With some exceptions, most of these discussions remain within a framework of US economic, foreign policy, and national security concerns, under the assumption that China’s overriding goal is to replicate or counter American influence. In doing so, the conversations often rely upon the narrow view from Washington and reproduce the underlying logic of US foreign policy. Read through this lens, all Chinese initiatives are either a successful or failed attempt to counter US dominance, and without reference to the Chinese and local perspective, critical details are often lost or misread. This is especially pronounced in media coverage of Sino–Iranian relations, which are often framed as a threat to American interests and global security (often conflated), or as part of a multipolar alternative to a hegemonic world order. Although the political, military, and economic implications of China’s relationship with Iran and the wider region are unquestionably important, closer attention to local sources and perspectives can provide an alternative view that both enriches our understanding and tempers our expectations of China’s role in Iran and in the wider region. This dynamic is clearly visible in the discourse surrounding the Iran–China 25-year cooperation agreement, signed on March 27, 2021.