Estimation of district-level fertility using age-structured census data and assessment of spatial–socioeconomic differentials in Botswana, 2022

By integrating standard direct demographic techniques with indirect and model-based validation, this study demonstrates the robustness of census data for subnational fertility estimation in Botswana. Persistent spatial and socioeconomic disparities highlight the need for differentiated policy responses: rural districts require intensified investments in child health, female education, and reproductive health services to sustain fertility decline, while urban areas must plan for the social and economic implications of sustained below-replacement fertility. Addressing these divergent trajectories is essential for achieving balanced and equitable demographic development in Botswana.